New York Liberty vs Golden State Valkyries - June 25, 2025 at 10:00 PM ET

Written By Alexander Stanley

Why Tonight Could Be the Valkyries' Upset Over the Liberty

Tonight's matchup between the New York Liberty and the Golden State Valkyries might seem like a foregone conclusion on paper, with the Liberty holding a strong record and often being considered title contenders. However, a closer look at both teams' current injury situations, particularly New York's, coupled with Golden State's surprising resilience, suggests that an upset is very much on the cards.

The conventional wisdom often fails to account for the true impact of key absences, and for the Liberty, that impact is significant.

Liberty's Crippling Absences: A Statistical Disadvantage

The New York Liberty are walking into tonight's game severely hobbled, missing critical pieces of their rotation. The most glaring absence is Jonquel Jones (Ankle), who is out for an extended period, projected to return in 4-6 weeks. Jones, a former MVP and crucial defensive anchor, was averaging 12.1 points and 9.6 rebounds in her nine appearances this season before her injury. Her absence leaves a gaping hole in the Liberty's interior defense, rebounding prowess, and offensive efficiency around the rim.

Furthermore, star guard Sabrina Ionescu (Neck) is listed as questionable. While she reportedly practiced, a neck injury for a player who relies heavily on precision shooting and dynamic playmaking is a major concern. Ionescu is averaging an impressive 20.4 points, 5.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game. If she's limited or unable to play, the Liberty lose a significant portion of their offensive firepower, particularly from beyond the arc where Ionescu is a prolific shooter. Even at 33% from deep, her volume and ability to stretch the floor are invaluable.

Beyond these two, Leonie Fiebich is also out due to overseas commitments, further thinning their depth. The cumulative effect of these injuries is a team that is not only missing scoring and rebounding, but also crucial defensive versatility and overall cohesion that comes from consistent rotations. They've already dropped back-to-back games, a clear sign that these absences are taking their toll.

Valkyries' Resilient Spirit Amidst Their Own Challenges

It's true that the Golden State Valkyries are also dealing with their own set of significant absences, with several players, including Temi Fagbenle, Janelle Salaun, Julie Vanloo, and Cecilia Zandalasini, away for EuroBasket. These are important players, particularly in terms of shooting and Fagbenle's presence as a starting center.

However, despite these losses, the Valkyries have shown remarkable resilience, exceeding expectations for an expansion team with a 7-6 record to begin their inaugural season. Their recent narrow loss to the Liberty (82-77) earlier in the season, despite trailing by 17 points in the first quarter, demonstrated their ability to fight back and compete. In that game, their bench outscored New York's 29-10, highlighting their depth and collective effort.

They're finding ways to stay competitive, even against top teams. This suggests a strong team culture and coaching that can adapt to missing pieces. While specific individual stats for their current fill-in players are still emerging, their collective performance speaks volumes.

The Statistical Edge Shifts

When you combine New York's significant individual statistical losses with the Valkyries' demonstrated ability to compete despite their own challenges, the dynamic of this game shifts dramatically.

  • Rebounding Battle: Without Jones, the Liberty's average of 35.6 RPG (6th in the league) will likely take a hit, opening the door for the Valkyries to dominate the boards and gain valuable second-chance points.

  • Offensive Efficiency: Ionescu's potential absence or limited play will severely impact New York's 90 PPG (1st in the league) and their 46.9% FG% (2nd). The offensive burden falls squarely on Breanna Stewart, but even she can be worn down without her usual supporting cast.

  • Defensive Gaps: Jones's defensive presence in the paint is irreplaceable. The Valkyries, despite missing key shooters, could find more success driving to the basket and getting easy looks.

The Valkyries, while not having the star power, are playing with a "nothing to lose" mentality and have proven they can be scrappy. Their previous tight contest against a healthier Liberty squad is a clear indicator that they are capable of pushing this game to the wire.

Tonight, with the Liberty missing their defensive anchor and potentially their primary playmaker, the door is wide open for the Golden State Valkyries to pull off a significant upset. The stats, coupled with the intangible factor of team resilience, suggest that tonight's game won't be the routine win many expect for New York.

Bet summary

Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty

Type of Bet: Moneyline (Valkyries to win outright)

Odds:

  • FanDuel: +360

  • DraftKings: +360

RATIONALE

  • A. New York Liberty - Significant Injuries

    • Jonquel Jones (Ankle):

      • Out for 4-6 weeks.

      • Crucial defensive anchor and rebounder.

      • Averaging 12.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.

      • Her absence creates a major void in interior defense and rebounding.

    • Sabrina Ionescu (Neck):

      • Listed as questionable. (Note: Latest reports suggest she is expected to play, but a neck injury is still a concern for a player reliant on precision.)

      • Key offensive playmaker and prolific shooter.

      • Averaging 20.4 points, 5.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game.

      • Her limited play or absence severely impacts offensive firepower.

    • Leonie Fiebich:

      • Out due to overseas commitments (further thins depth).

    • Overall Impact on Liberty:

      • Decreased scoring and rebounding.

      • Reduced defensive versatility and team cohesion.

      • Contributed to recent back-to-back losses.

  • B. Golden State Valkyries - Resilience and Opportunity

    • Despite Absences: Several players (Temi Fagbenle, Janelle Salaun, Julie Vanloo, Cecilia Zandalasini) are away for EuroBasket.

    • Proven Resilience:

      • Exceeded expectations for an expansion team with a 7-6 record.

      • Narrowly lost to the Liberty (82-77) earlier in the season, showing ability to compete and rally.

      • Bench outscored New York's bench 29-10 in previous matchup, indicating depth.

    • Mentality: Playing with a "nothing to lose" attitude.

Statistical Shift Favoring Valkyries

  • Rebounding: Liberty's 35.6 RPG (6th in league) is likely to drop without Jones, allowing Valkyries to gain offensive rebounds and second-chance points.

  • Offensive Efficiency: Liberty's 90 PPG (1st) and 46.9% FG% (2nd) will be challenged, especially if Ionescu is limited or not at 100%.

  • Defensive Gaps: Jones's absence opens up the paint for Valkyries' drives and potentially easier looks.

Conclusion on Bet Value

  • This is a high-value underdog bet given the current injury landscape for the Liberty.

  • The Valkyries' demonstrated ability to compete, even when short-handed, presents a genuine upset opportunity.

Alexander Stanley